It starts to be seen...

Last September/October everywhere I went people were discussing the economy, in the packed restaurants, in the full stores, people were splashing out credit cards and talking about the economic collapse. I said to DH, I hear about it, but I don't see it. And he said, wait till Jan.

Well, it's early Feb, and as I walk around Tribeca, it appears thriving, there are well dressed children on the streets. The restaurants are still reasonably full, though there are articles appearing saying that they've lost 30% of their trade - and knowing how thin restaurant break evens are, that 30% was their profit...

But as I walk down the side streets, all those weird, sweet boutiques, who sold hand bags and shoes for ridiculous prices, one by one they are closing. Along Duane and Reade, the two prime Tribeca streets, loads of foot traffic, loads of exposure, stores are empty. Further up, on Hudson, store fronts are papered over, looking like they are planning to be empty for some time. I feel for those small shop owners, whose product was all cream - no necessities, only luxuries. The girls clothes shop on Duane is now telling customers to gather their friends and bring them in, otherwise they will close too.

And I think about how the rents have almost doubled over the past five years, which is what is really killing these shops. I only hope the store owners have the sense to see that not many folk are going to be opening new boutiques in the near future, and it may be worth their while to take in a much reduced rent - cover the taxes and common charges - rather than leave the stores empty. I guess as they see more shops empty out, their perspective too will change.

Everyone was making so much money for so long, they lost sight of how crazy the whole thing was. Rents really need to drop here, go back at least 2 years worth of over pricing, but probably even 5. Then everyone will have a bullet to bite. But as I keep saying if you are planning on staying put, the real estate can fluctuate, but you'll end up okay. Or if you sell in a bad market, but also buy in bad market, you can still do okay - as long as you bought 20 years ago and a mortgage doesn't factor in!

It's the banker's girls fault...

I read two stories today in the nyt and maybe it was that there were 2 of them, but I feel a rant coming on...

First I read, It's the Economy Girlfriend, where girlfriends and the occassional wife/mistress of bankers were interviewed, saying how their masters of the universe were now clingy and depressed and in the words of one wife (!) 'that's not what I signed up for.'

That article took me to this blog, dabagirls (Dating a Banker, Anonymous) where the comments became more explicit, and the attitudes even clearer. The 'God you are so 24' blog really did it for me. I mean, he's having an affair but he's right - she's complaining that they haven't had a holiday since September and he's telling her he has to lay off 20 people this week... Really, he should just stick to the wife, I don't think his nerves can take the 24 yo narcissim right now (I know mine can't.)

And then we see what happens when these DABA's grow up in the next article - Everybody's Business. The author is so kind when he describes his dear friend, the divorced woman who took on a 2.2 million dollar interest only mortgage (!) that she has no chance of paying off, ever, and has her ex giving her $20K p/month and her current boyfriend paying off her credit card bills and only now she's anxious.

And I just feel angry. What are these women thinking? How could she take on so much debt? If I were in her shoes, I couldn't sleep at night... but that would have been way before September. How could she build no equity in her home? How could she fritter away her children and her future security in that way...

So now I'm still blaming the bankers, but I'm getting angry with their wives/girlfriends too...

(and their added crime - they make me feel old. Even the 40 yo woman in the last article. I felt like an adult surrounded by a bevy of gorgeous, demanding toddlers, and I wanted to send them all to bed to get a much needed reality check.)